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Ultra-Defensive Global Portfolio

An ultra-defensive all-weather portfolio designed for maximum capital preservation with minimal equity exposure. The allocation emphasizes global government bonds (82%) as the core anchor, complemented by a small equity allocation (12%) to MSCI World for long-term growth potential, and physical gold (6%) as an inflation hedge and safe haven asset. This conservative strategy targets risk-averse investors seeking stability, wealth preservation, and protection against market volatility, with annual rebalancing to maintain target allocations. The EUR-hedged government bonds provide predictable returns while minimizing currency risk.

Optimize FIRE Projection
Annual Rebalancing
EUR
Low Risk
16.1yr backtest

Performance Summary

Total Return+48.42%
Annualized Return+2.48%
Volatility+4.17%
Sharpe Ratio0.11
Max Drawdown+15.87%

Holdings

Asset Allocation

Asset Class

Bonds 82.0%Equity 12.0%Precious Metals 6.0%
Holdings Details
Designed for maximum capital preservation, this ultra-defensive global portfolio uses 82% bonds, 12% equity, 6% gold, and annual rebalancing.
AssetTypeAllocationTER
DBZB.XETRA
Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF 1C EUR HedgedLU0378818131
ETF
82.0%0.25%
EUNL.XETRA
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD (Acc)IE00B4L5Y983
ETF
12.0%0.2%
XAD1.XETRA
Xtrackers Physical Gold EUR Hedged ETCDE000A1EK0G3
ETF
6.0%0.59%
Total100.0%0.26%

Performance

Portfolio Value Over Time
Starting with 10,000 investment → now worth €14,841.93
Histogram of Monthly Returns
The portfolio had a positive return during 118 of the 195 months (61%)
Monthly Returns Heatmap
Best month: +3.5% • Worst month: -3.7% • Best year: 2014 (+8.3%) • Worst year: 2022 (-14.1%)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
2026+0.8%+1.7%-3.2%+0.8%+1.0%-0.3%-1.5%+0.7%-0.7%----0.8%
2025+1.2%+0.7%-1.0%+0.9%-0.3%+0.5%+0.0%+0.5%+1.6%+1.4%+0.3%-0.2%+5.8%
2024-0.1%-0.4%+1.5%-1.7%+0.5%+1.3%+1.8%+0.9%+1.1%-0.9%+1.6%-1.4%+4.2%
2023+2.5%-1.8%+2.4%+0.3%-0.4%+0.0%-0.1%-0.5%-2.3%-0.5%+3.3%+3.1%+5.9%
2022-2.0%-0.8%-1.3%-2.9%-1.4%-2.2%+2.9%-3.1%-3.7%-0.2%+1.6%-2.0%-14.1%
2021-0.6%-1.9%+0.7%+0.3%+0.4%+0.7%+1.6%+0.1%-1.5%+0.7%+0.9%-0.2%+1.1%
2020+1.9%+0.1%-1.1%+1.9%+0.1%+0.4%+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%-0.5%+0.7%+0.6%+5.3%
2019+1.5%+0.3%+1.5%-0.0%+0.6%+2.0%+1.0%+2.4%-0.6%-0.4%-0.1%-0.1%+8.3%
2018-0.5%-0.4%+0.5%-0.3%+0.3%-0.1%-0.3%+0.2%-0.6%-0.6%+0.4%+0.2%-1.2%
2017-0.5%+1.4%-0.2%+0.4%+0.1%-0.7%+0.0%+0.8%-0.4%+0.4%+0.1%+0.1%+1.4%
2016+1.1%+1.6%+0.5%+0.1%+0.3%+2.6%+0.5%-0.6%-0.1%-1.4%-1.4%+0.4%+3.5%
2015+3.5%-0.3%+0.8%-1.1%-0.1%-1.6%+1.0%-1.1%+0.1%+1.4%+0.1%-0.8%+1.6%
2014+1.2%+1.1%-0.2%+0.4%+1.1%+0.7%+0.3%+1.5%-0.4%+0.4%+1.2%+0.6%+8.3%
2013-0.2%+0.7%+1.2%+0.4%-1.4%-1.8%+0.9%-0.3%+0.6%+1.0%-0.1%-0.6%+0.3%
2012+1.5%+0.5%+0.0%-0.1%+0.6%+0.2%+1.4%+0.2%+0.5%-0.4%+0.7%-0.3%+5.0%
2011-0.7%+0.5%-0.5%+1.2%+0.8%-0.5%+1.4%+1.6%+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%+0.6%+5.4%
2010-------0.1%+2.3%+0.1%+0.0%-0.2%+0.1%+2.2%
> +2%
0% to +2%
-2% to 0%
< -2%
Drawdown Analysis
Maximum drawdown: +15.87% • The longest drawdown period lasted for 4 years and 1 month and was between December 2021 and January 2026. It reached a trough of -15.9%.
When could this portfolio get you to financial independence?

Ultra-Defensive Global Portfolio returned +2.48% a year over the 16 years above. Run those same monthly returns forward through 10,000 simulated paths, with your own savings and target retirement age, to see when they could reach your FIRE number.

Detailed Metrics

Returns
Total Return
+48.42%
Annualized Return
+2.48%
Avg Monthly Return
+0.21%
Risk
Volatility (Annual)
+4.17%
Max Drawdown
+15.87%
Positive Months
61%
Average Drawdown
-3.3%
Risk-Adjusted
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Risk-free rate: 2.0%
Sortino Ratio
0.11
Downside risk adjusted
Return/Volatility
0.59
Calmar Ratio
0.16
Return/Max Drawdown
Ulcer Index
4.93
Drawdown depth & duration
Martin Ratio
0.00
Return/Ulcer Index
Backtest Configuration
Initial Investment
10,000
Final Value
14,841.93
Backtest Period
2010-07-26 to 2026-09-11
16.1 years
Rebalancing
annual
Base Currency
EUR