FIRE Projection

Beta

A forward-looking Monte Carlo projection for spy, bootstrapped from its own historical performance.

15.2yr history · 8 Jul 2011–4 Sept 2026+11.84% annualized return+16.72% volatilityEUR base currency

Fund fees (TER) are already reflected in these historical prices. The projection assumes your current holdings and allocation stay constant going forward.

Your FIRE inputs

Adjust the assumptions below and re-run the projection.

Starting capital

Default baseline: edit to match what you've actually invested

Monthly contribution

Added at the start of each month

Target annual spend

In today's EUR, retirement lifestyle

Your FIRE number€750.000

In today's EUR. Grows with inflation over time, see chart

Projected portfolio value

10th–90th percentileMedian (50th)Wealth milestone

Crossover

FIRE

Retirement age

Simulated using 10,000 Monte Carlo paths bootstrapped from this portfolio's historical monthly returns, and adjusted for 2% annual inflation. Contributions continue at €500/month for the whole projection, including past your target retirement age, and are not increased with inflation. Nothing is withdrawn, so this shows when you reach your number, not how long it lasts afterwards. Figures are gross of tax and shown in the portfolio's base currency (EUR). Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.

Crossover point

2031

You'll be 38

Median scenario: 2031 · Optimistic (90th percentile): 2030

From this point, your portfolio's expected monthly growth exceeds your €500/month contribution. Compounding is now doing more for you than saving is.

Full FIRE

2053

You'll be 61

Median scenario: 2053 · Optimistic (90th percentile): 2048

Your portfolio reaches your inflation-adjusted €750.000 target, covering €30.000/year of today's spending power.

Retirement age

2057

Age 65, as set above

Projected balance: €2.005.483 median (145% of your €1.385.692 target)

Optimistic (90th percentile): €3.751.150. Conservative (10th percentile): €1.071.109.