HomePortfoliosClaude Trend Following Gold

Claude Trend Following Gold

Optimize FIRE Projection
Quarterly Rebalancing
EUR
Moderate Risk
Multi-currency
6.5yr backtest

Performance Summary

Total Return+166.49%
Annualized Return+16.25%
Volatility+16.01%
Sharpe Ratio0.89
Max Drawdown+22.25%

Holdings

Asset Allocation

Asset Class

Equity 90.0%Precious Metals 10.0%
Holdings Details
Diversified global equity portfolio with 90% in momentum, value, and quality factor ETFs, plus 10% gold for stability and balanced growth.
AssetTypeAllocationTER
IWMO.LSE
iShares Edge MSCI World Momentum Factor UCITS ETF (Acc)IE00BP3QZ825
ETF
40.0%0.25%
IWVL.LSE
iShares Edge MSCI World Value Factor UCITS ETFIE00BP3QZB59
ETF
40.0%0.25%
IWQU.LSE
iShares Edge MSCI World Quality Factor UCITS ETF (Acc)IE00BP3QZ601
ETF
10.0%0.25%
8PSG.XETRA
Invesco Physical Gold ADE000A1MECS1
ETF
10.0%0.19%
Total100.0%0.24%

Performance

Portfolio Value Over Time
Starting with 10,000 investment → now worth €26,648.55
Histogram of Monthly Returns
The portfolio had a positive return during 52 of the 79 months (66%)
Monthly Returns Heatmap
Best month: +12.1% • Worst month: -9.3% • Best year: 2026 (+26.0%) • Worst year: 2022 (-7.5%)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
2026+3.7%+3.9%-7.2%+12.1%+10.1%+3.4%-5.3%+3.3%+0.9%---+26.0%
2025+5.0%+0.1%-5.4%-2.3%+5.0%-0.6%+1.9%+2.4%+4.0%+3.5%+1.4%+1.8%+17.4%
2024+4.5%+4.4%+5.5%-1.9%+1.6%+3.1%+0.1%-0.6%+1.2%+1.1%+5.3%-0.9%+25.6%
2023+2.6%+0.3%-0.9%+0.1%-0.3%+3.6%+2.4%-0.4%-0.6%-2.2%+4.5%+3.4%+12.9%
2022-3.1%-0.3%+4.2%-2.5%-2.3%-5.8%+5.6%-0.8%-5.1%+5.6%+0.9%-3.3%-7.5%
2021+1.7%+2.3%+5.6%+1.4%+0.4%+1.8%+1.1%+2.4%-0.7%+3.8%-0.7%+3.2%+24.5%
2020---9.3%+6.7%+2.4%+1.5%-1.9%+5.2%-1.1%-2.8%+7.1%+3.4%+10.4%
> +2%
0% to +2%
-2% to 0%
< -2%
Drawdown Analysis
Maximum drawdown: +22.25% • The longest drawdown period lasted for 1 year and 11 months and was between January 2022 and December 2023. It reached a trough of -13.0%.
When could this portfolio get you to financial independence?

Claude Trend Following Gold returned +16.25% a year over the 7 years above. Run those same monthly returns forward through 10,000 simulated paths, with your own savings and target retirement age, to see when they could reach your FIRE number.

Detailed Metrics

Returns
Total Return
+166.49%
Annualized Return
+16.25%
Avg Monthly Return
+1.31%
Risk
Volatility (Annual)
+16.01%
Max Drawdown
+22.25%
Positive Months
66%
Average Drawdown
-3.9%
Risk-Adjusted
Sharpe Ratio
0.89
Risk-free rate: 2.0%
Sortino Ratio
0.83
Downside risk adjusted
Return/Volatility
1.01
Calmar Ratio
0.73
Return/Max Drawdown
Ulcer Index
4.83
Drawdown depth & duration
Martin Ratio
0.03
Return/Ulcer Index
Backtest Configuration
Initial Investment
10,000
Final Value
26,648.55
Backtest Period
2020-03-02 to 2026-09-04
6.5 years
Rebalancing
quarterly
Base Currency
EUR